Decisions


I’m reading “Thinking in bets” these days. Halfway through it it’s a great read.

The best expression I’ve taken from the book is “Resulting”, as in focusing on the results not the decision that lead to the result.

An example to explain: You know there’s 90% probability of rain, so you bring an umbrella. It doesn’t start to rain, and you feel bad about your decision. The decision was correct, but you’re resulting.

These things are all around. Another version of this is survivor bias - excellently illustrated in this xckd (my favorite one actually - I’ve had this printed above my desk for the past few years). Tom Tunguz also writes brilliantly about this.

We all suffer from this to different degrees. But I believe we’ll all make better decisions just by being aware of it. So go read the book.